At the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) held within the China Pavilion, a significant document, The China Energy Transformation Outlook 2024 (CETO2024), was officially released, sparking wide attention among global climate watchers. The report firmly posits that the ongoing energy transformation in China holds the key to making a decisive contribution to the establishment of
At the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) held within the China Pavilion, a significant document, The China Energy Transformation Outlook 2024 (CETO2024), was officially released, sparking wide attention among global climate watchers. The report firmly posits that the ongoing energy transformation in China holds the key to making a decisive contribution to the establishment of a carbon-neutral economic and social system by 2060.
Delving into the details of CETO2024, it emerges as a comprehensive encapsulation of China's latest developmental trajectories in the energy domain. It meticulously examines the country's ambitious goals of reaching carbon peak and attaining carbon neutrality, while also probing deep into how enhanced international cooperation could potentially shape and accelerate China's energy transition journey. Notably, the report crafts two distinct scenarios, serving as a powerful analytical tool to dissect the technological pathways and future prospects of China's energy shift under diverse international cooperation landscapes. Beyond these scenario-based insights, CETO2024 ventures into in-depth, specialized studies on emerging and critical topics. These encompass the construction of a new, sustainable energy system, the complex process of the low-carbon transformation of industrial sectors, and the burgeoning initiatives related to power-to-fuel conversions that are set to redefine the energy paradigm.
The report's "Executive Summary", primarily authored by the Energy Research Institute of the National Academy of Macroeconomic Research, undertakes a sweeping review and synthesis of global energy transition trends. It then pivots to a granular analysis of the transformation prospects of China's energy production and consumption patterns. Moreover, it painstakingly explores the viable pathways and technical solutions that could steer China's energy system towards achieving net-zero carbon emissions, all while factoring in different international cooperation scenarios. A central tenet of the summary is the emphasis on energy transformation being an indispensable linchpin in China's pursuit of the 2060 carbon neutrality target. It further advocates that China should drive energy transformation across five crucial dimensions, all while ramping up international cooperation efforts to not only ensure its own smooth transition but also play an active role in powering the global energy transformation narrative.
According to the projections laid out in the "Executive Summary", with unwavering commitment and significant efforts poured into energy transformation, it is anticipated that this process will play a decisive role in meeting China's carbon-neutral objective by 2060. Looking ahead to that milestone year, China's economic scale is forecast to balloon to 3.3 to 3.6 times that of 2020. In terms of primary energy consumption, on an equivalent calorific value basis, it is expected to follow a trajectory of initial growth followed by a decline, with a reduction of approximately one-third from its peak levels by 2060. Thanks to the rapid strides in energy transition technologies, inclusive of carbon capture and other negative emission technologies, China's energy system is on track to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2060, thereby underpinning the overarching goal of carbon neutrality across the entire economic and social fabric.
The report distills five cardinal conclusions that are set to guide China's energy transformation journey. Firstly, energy conservation and enhanced efficiency serve as the bedrock of any successful energy transition. Secondly, the continuous expansion of electrification represents an effective pathway towards carbon neutrality. Thirdly, the construction of a new power system dominated by wind and solar energy sources is an inescapable choice given the climate imperatives. Fourthly, the development of a highly intelligent power grid is at the heart of the new power system's functionality and viability. And lastly, technological innovation acts as the catalyst that propels energy transition forward, with new forms of energy production harboring significant market potential. The report also rings the alarm on the need for continuous reform of energy systems and mechanisms, accompanied by the establishment of a robust legal framework to foster and safeguard the energy transition process.
However, China's energy transformation odyssey is fraught with multiple challenges that cannot be overlooked. The industrial structure, weighted down by energy-intensive sectors such as steel, cement, and chemicals, poses a complex hurdle for economic restructuring and industrial transformation. Coal, which still dominates China's energy structure – given that China is the world's largest energy consumer and coal accounts for over half of its energy consumption – represents another major stumbling block. The herculean task of leapfrogging the "oil and gas era" to replace coal on a large scale with new and renewable energy sources is a challenge of unprecedented proportions. The recent rapid spurt in electricity demand further complicates the transition equation, as China grapples with the need to strike a delicate balance between green and low-carbon goals, energy security, and affordability. Constraints such as limited land availability, insufficient system absorption capacity, and high storage costs for electricity are impeding the accelerated development of renewable energy sources, despite the surging demand. Lastly, the market forces driving energy transition in China require significant strengthening, as the long-standing anomaly of high-carbon energy being priced low and low-carbon energy being priced high, compounded by significant regional energy price disparities, makes leveraging market mechanisms to drive energy transition a daunting task.
In response to these challenges, the report proffers a strategic roadmap, recommending that China should concurrently advance energy transformation across five key fronts: electrification of energy consumption, ensuring a low-carbon energy supply, fostering interactive energy demand and supply dynamics, industrializing energy technology, and modernizing energy governance. Crucially, it also underlines the importance of bolstering international cooperation in the energy transition space, with the aim of jointly exploring collaborative pathways that will smoothen China's energy transition journey and enable it to contribute its unique strength to the global energy transformation tableau.